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7 of 12 matches with xG: 18 goals from 20.9 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United 1–1 AFC Wimbledon | 1.27–0.86 | 46% · 29% · 25% | Draw in line with xG |
| Plymouth 0–1 Burton Albion | 2.50–0.94 | 71% · 17% · 12% | Won against the xG: Burton Albion |
| Stockport County 1–0 Peterborough | 1.78–1.43 | 46% · 23% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Stockport County |
| Wycombe 2–2 Reading | 1.96–1.25 | 54% · 22% · 24% | Draw against the xG: Wycombe had 54% |
| Leicester 3–0 Wigan | 2.91–1.07 | 75% · 14% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Leicester |
| Milton Keynes Dons 4–1 Bromley | 2.38–0.87 | 71% · 17% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Milton Keynes Dons |
| Huddersfield 1–1 Luton | 1.04–0.66 | 44% · 33% · 23% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.