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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 30.9 xG (0.87 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Burnley 0–2 Chelsea | 0.44–1.72 | 9% · 22% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Bournemouth 2–2 West Ham | 4.05–0.65 | 92% · 5% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 92% |
| Brighton 2–1 Brentford | 1.22–1.91 | 24% · 22% · 53% | Won against the xG: Brighton |
| Fulham 1–0 Sunderland | 2.16–0.17 | 84% · 14% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Liverpool 0–3 Nottingham Forest | 1.93–1.58 | 46% · 22% · 32% | Close call, Nottingham Forest won |
| Wolves 0–2 Crystal Palace | 1.79–1.27 | 50% · 23% · 27% | Won against the xG: Crystal Palace |
| Newcastle 2–1 Manchester City | 2.24–2.49 | 36% · 19% · 45% | Close call, Newcastle won |
| Leeds 1–2 Aston Villa | 1.79–1.58 | 43% · 23% · 34% | Close call, Aston Villa won |
| Arsenal 4–1 Tottenham | 1.93–0.07 | 84% · 15% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Manchester United 0–1 Everton | 1.71–0.21 | 76% · 20% · 4% | Won against the xG: Everton |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.