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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 30.5 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 2–1 Arsenal | 2.16–1.92 | 44% · 20% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Bournemouth 0–0 Chelsea | 1.42–0.92 | 49% · 27% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Everton 3–0 Nottingham Forest | 1.12–0.53 | 50% · 32% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Manchester City 3–0 Sunderland | 2.42–0.71 | 75% · 16% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Newcastle 2–1 Burnley | 1.77–1.61 | 42% · 23% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Tottenham 2–0 Brentford | 2.18–0.29 | 81% · 15% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Leeds 3–3 Liverpool | 1.51–1.91 | 31% · 22% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Brighton 1–1 West Ham | 1.87–1.14 | 54% · 23% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Brighton had 54% |
| Fulham 1–2 Crystal Palace | 0.76–1.65 | 17% · 24% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Wolves 1–4 Manchester United | 0.41–4.24 | 1% · 4% · 95% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.