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10 of 10 matches with xG: 34 goals from 28.8 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea 2–0 Everton | 2.20–1.03 | 64% · 19% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Chelsea |
| Liverpool 2–0 Brighton | 1.89–1.90 | 39% · 21% · 40% | Close call, Liverpool won |
| Burnley 2–3 Fulham | 2.46–2.23 | 45% · 19% · 36% | Close call, Fulham won |
| Arsenal 2–1 Wolves | 1.13–0.38 | 55% · 33% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Crystal Palace 0–3 Manchester City | 1.88–1.19 | 53% · 23% · 24% | Won against the xG: Manchester City |
| Nottingham Forest 3–0 Tottenham | 2.32–0.33 | 83% · 14% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Sunderland 1–0 Newcastle | 0.30–0.24 | 21% · 63% · 16% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| West Ham 2–3 Aston Villa | 1.03–0.67 | 43% · 33% · 23% | Won against the xG: Aston Villa |
| Brentford 1–1 Leeds | 0.72–1.52 | 18% · 26% · 56% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 56% |
| Manchester United 4–4 Bournemouth | 3.40–1.94 | 66% · 15% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Manchester United had 66% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.