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10 of 10 matches with xG: 32 goals from 24.3 xG (1.32 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 3–1 Nottingham Forest | 1.59–0.89 | 54% · 25% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Brighton 2–0 Burnley | 1.45–0.30 | 67% · 26% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Wolves 3–0 West Ham | 1.87–0.25 | 77% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Wolves |
| Bournemouth 2–3 Arsenal | 1.43–1.13 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Arsenal won |
| Leeds 1–1 Manchester United | 0.90–1.58 | 21% · 25% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Manchester United had 53% |
| Everton 2–4 Brentford | 0.89–2.66 | 10% · 15% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Newcastle 2–0 Crystal Palace | 2.08–0.70 | 70% · 19% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Newcastle |
| Tottenham 1–1 Sunderland | 1.18–0.44 | 55% · 31% · 14% | Draw against the xG: Tottenham had 55% |
| Fulham 2–2 Liverpool | 0.74–1.37 | 20% · 28% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Liverpool had 52% |
| Manchester City 1–1 Chelsea | 1.02–1.85 | 21% · 23% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Chelsea had 57% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.