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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 28.6 xG (1.26 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves 2–0 Aston Villa | 0.92–1.06 | 31% · 31% · 38% | Close call, Wolves won |
| Bournemouth 1–1 Sunderland | 1.71–1.42 | 45% · 23% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Burnley 3–4 Brentford | 0.97–2.25 | 15% · 19% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Brentford |
| Liverpool 5–2 West Ham | 1.84–1.86 | 39% · 22% · 40% | Close call, Liverpool won |
| Newcastle 2–3 Everton | 1.03–2.13 | 17% · 20% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Leeds 0–1 Manchester City | 1.49–2.00 | 29% · 22% · 50% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Brighton 2–1 Nottingham Forest | 1.32–0.79 | 49% · 28% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Fulham 2–1 Tottenham | 2.28–0.88 | 69% · 18% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Manchester United 2–1 Crystal Palace | 2.16–0.38 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
| Arsenal 2–1 Chelsea | 1.09–1.07 | 36% · 29% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.