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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 27.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wolves 2–2 Arsenal | 0.29–1.60 | 6% · 23% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Arsenal had 71% |
| Bournemouth 2–2 Manchester United | 1.80–1.77 | 40% · 22% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Brighton 2–1 Liverpool | 2.17–1.03 | 63% · 20% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Fulham 3–1 Burnley | 3.15–1.24 | 75% · 13% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Everton 3–0 Chelsea | 1.18–0.93 | 42% · 30% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Everton |
| Leeds 0–0 Brentford | 0.52–0.46 | 29% · 47% · 24% | Draw in line with xG |
| Newcastle 1–2 Sunderland | 1.29–2.44 | 19% · 18% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Sunderland |
| Aston Villa 2–0 West Ham | 1.69–0.85 | 57% · 24% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Tottenham 0–3 Nottingham Forest | 1.25–1.34 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Manchester City 3–0 Crystal Palace | 1.66–0.73 | 60% · 24% · 16% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.