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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 26.6 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford 0–0 Fulham | 1.43–0.77 | 53% · 27% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Brentford had 53% |
| Leeds 3–0 Wolves | 2.82–0.57 | 84% · 11% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
| Newcastle 1–2 Bournemouth | 1.59–2.99 | 18% · 16% · 66% | Win in line with xG for Bournemouth |
| Tottenham 2–2 Brighton | 1.09–0.82 | 42% · 31% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
| Chelsea 0–1 Manchester United | 1.57–0.29 | 70% · 24% · 6% | Won against the xG: Manchester United |
| Aston Villa 4–3 Sunderland | 2.84–1.73 | 61% · 17% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Everton 1–2 Liverpool | 0.79–1.45 | 20% · 27% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Liverpool |
| Nottingham Forest 4–1 Burnley | 1.19–0.36 | 57% · 31% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Manchester City 2–1 Arsenal | 1.36–1.62 | 32% · 24% · 44% | Close call, Manchester City won |
| Crystal Palace 0–0 West Ham | 0.73–0.61 | 34% · 39% · 27% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.