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10 of 10 matches with xG: 26 goals from 24.6 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton 3–0 Chelsea | 2.14–0.37 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Bournemouth 2–2 Leeds | 1.65–0.81 | 57% · 24% · 18% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 57% |
| Burnley 0–1 Manchester City | 0.63–3.36 | 4% · 8% · 88% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Sunderland 0–5 Nottingham Forest | 0.70–1.10 | 23% · 32% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Fulham 1–0 Aston Villa | 1.18–0.93 | 42% · 30% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Fulham |
| Liverpool 3–1 Crystal Palace | 1.15–2.26 | 18% · 19% · 62% | Won against the xG: Liverpool |
| West Ham 2–1 Everton | 1.17–1.45 | 30% · 26% · 44% | Close call, West Ham won |
| Wolves 0–1 Tottenham | 0.62–1.05 | 21% · 33% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Tottenham |
| Arsenal 1–0 Newcastle | 0.49–1.00 | 18% · 35% · 47% | Won against the xG: Arsenal |
| Manchester United 2–1 Brentford | 1.36–1.17 | 41% · 27% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Manchester United |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.