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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 30.3 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford 3–1 Manchester United | 2.02–2.08 | 39% · 20% · 41% | Close call, Brentford won |
| Chelsea 1–3 Brighton | 1.81–2.28 | 31% · 20% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Crystal Palace 2–1 Liverpool | 2.92–2.14 | 55% · 17% · 28% | Win in line with xG for Crystal Palace |
| Leeds 2–2 Bournemouth | 1.84–0.82 | 62% · 22% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Leeds had 62% |
| Manchester City 5–1 Burnley | 2.03–0.41 | 76% · 18% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Nottingham Forest 0–1 Sunderland | 1.68–1.66 | 39% · 23% · 38% | Close call, Sunderland won |
| Tottenham 1–1 Wolves | 0.87–1.15 | 28% · 30% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Aston Villa 3–1 Fulham | 1.11–0.92 | 40% · 30% · 30% | Win in line with xG for Aston Villa |
| Newcastle 1–2 Arsenal | 0.61–2.04 | 10% · 19% · 71% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Everton 1–1 West Ham | 0.73–1.19 | 23% · 30% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.