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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 26.6 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aston Villa 1–2 Nottingham Forest | 0.82–2.28 | 12% · 18% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Nottingham Forest |
| Bournemouth 2–2 Brentford | 1.75–0.50 | 68% · 22% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Bournemouth had 68% |
| Chelsea 2–2 Hull City | 0.91–1.38 | 25% · 27% · 48% | Draw in line with xG |
| Crystal Palace 2–3 Ipswich | 0.62–1.67 | 13% · 24% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Ipswich |
| Liverpool 0–0 Fulham | 1.28–0.70 | 50% · 29% · 20% | Draw against the xG: Liverpool had 50% |
| Tottenham 0–0 Everton | 0.69–1.11 | 23% · 32% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sunderland 0–2 Arsenal | 1.80–1.88 | 38% · 22% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Coventry 0–5 Brighton | 1.33–2.81 | 16% · 16% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Manchester United 0–1 Manchester City | 1.00–1.10 | 32% · 30% · 38% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Leeds 4–1 Newcastle | 2.08–0.88 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Leeds |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.