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10 of 10 matches with xG: 36 goals from 30.6 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal 2–1 Leeds | 2.33–0.62 | 76% · 16% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Arsenal |
| Aston Villa 2–2 Brentford | 2.28–1.06 | 65% · 19% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Aston Villa had 65% |
| Chelsea 5–1 Bournemouth | 1.10–1.38 | 30% · 27% · 43% | Close call, Chelsea won |
| Ipswich 2–1 Fulham | 1.15–1.81 | 24% · 23% · 53% | Won against the xG: Ipswich |
| Sunderland 0–2 Brighton | 0.72–1.41 | 19% · 27% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Brighton |
| Manchester United 1–1 Tottenham | 0.80–1.62 | 18% · 25% · 57% | Draw against the xG: Tottenham had 57% |
| Crystal Palace 3–1 Nottingham Forest | 2.41–3.34 | 27% · 16% · 57% | Won against the xG: Crystal Palace |
| Hull City 2–2 Everton | 1.33–1.68 | 30% · 24% · 46% | Draw in line with xG |
| Liverpool 0–3 Manchester City | 0.94–1.28 | 27% · 28% · 44% | Win in line with xG for Manchester City |
| Coventry 4–1 Newcastle | 1.47–1.84 | 31% · 23% · 46% | Close call, Coventry won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.