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Ligue 1 2025/2026 xG Round-Up: Matchday 15

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Matches

Matchday 15 in xG

9 of 9 matches with xG: 17 goals from 20.2 xG (0.84 goals per xG).

  • Most xG without a win: Le Havre 0–0 Paris FC (xG 1.84–1.23). Draw against the xG: Le Havre had 52% to win on xG.
  • Biggest win against the xG: Nice 0–1 Angers (xG 1.31–0.83). The winner had 24% on xG.
  • Win most in line with xG: Lorient 1–0 Lyon (xG 2.57–0.43). The winner had 83% on xG.
  • Most xG: Nantes 1–2 Lens (xG 1.19–2.30). 3.49 xG in all.
  • Most one-sided: Lorient 1–0 Lyon (xG 2.57–0.43). An xG gap of 2.14.
  • Most goals above xG: PSG, +2.77 goals above xG.
  • Most goals below xG: Le Havre, -1.84 goals below xG.

Every match

MatchxGChances (home · draw · away)Result on xG
Brest 1–0 Monaco1.53–0.6060% · 26% · 14%Win in line with xG for Brest
Lille 1–0 Marseille0.35–0.5319% · 50% · 32%Close call, Lille won
Nantes 1–2 Lens1.19–2.3019% · 19% · 62%Win in line with xG for Lens
Toulouse 1–0 Strasbourg0.50–0.0538% · 59% · 3%Close call, Toulouse won
PSG 5–0 Rennes2.23–0.2483% · 14% · 3%Win in line with xG for PSG
Nice 0–1 Angers1.31–0.8348% · 28% · 24%Won against the xG: Angers
Auxerre 3–1 Metz1.94–0.5571% · 20% · 10%Win in line with xG for Auxerre
Le Havre 0–0 Paris FC1.84–1.2352% · 23% · 26%Draw against the xG: Le Havre had 52%
Lorient 1–0 Lyon2.57–0.4383% · 12% · 4%Win in line with xG for Lorient

Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.

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