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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 27.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim 3–1 VfL Bochum | 1.47–1.68 | 34% · 24% · 43% | Close call, Hoffenheim won |
| Union Berlin 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.06–1.09 | 60% · 21% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 5–1 Bayern Munich | 1.32–2.08 | 24% · 21% · 55% | Won against the xG: Eintracht Frankfurt |
| VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg | 1.19–1.09 | 38% · 28% · 33% | Close call, SC Freiburg won |
| Werder Bremen 2–0 FC Augsburg | 1.48–0.72 | 55% · 26% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Werder Bremen |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 3–2 SV Darmstadt 98 | 1.51–0.92 | 51% · 26% · 23% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Heidenheim |
| Borussia Dortmund 2–3 RB Leipzig | 1.85–3.24 | 20% · 15% · 65% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen | 2.68–1.29 | 67% · 17% · 16% | Draw against the xG: VfB Stuttgart had 67% |
| FC Cologne 0–0 Mainz 05 | 0.24–1.53 | 5% · 24% · 71% | Draw against the xG: Mainz 05 had 71% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.