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9 of 9 matches with xG: 32 goals from 27.1 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 2–0 Union Berlin | 0.99–0.91 | 36% · 32% · 32% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Bayern Munich 8–1 Mainz 05 | 6.41–0.84 | 98% · 1% · 1% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| RB Leipzig 2–0 SV Darmstadt 98 | 3.55–0.53 | 91% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–3 FC Cologne | 1.83–0.54 | 69% · 21% · 10% | Draw against the xG: Borussia Mönchengladbach had 69% |
| FC Augsburg 1–0 1. FC Heidenheim | 0.54–0.38 | 31% · 48% · 20% | Close call, FC Augsburg won |
| Werder Bremen 1–2 Borussia Dortmund | 1.82–1.17 | 53% · 23% · 24% | Won against the xG: Borussia Dortmund |
| VfL Bochum 1–2 SC Freiburg | 1.10–1.25 | 32% · 28% · 40% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 3–1 Hoffenheim | 2.43–0.57 | 79% · 15% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 VfL Wolfsburg | 2.09–0.17 | 83% · 14% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.