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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 29.6 xG (0.98 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt 1–1 Werder Bremen | 2.18–1.65 | 50% · 21% · 29% | Draw against the xG: Eintracht Frankfurt had 50% |
| Union Berlin 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.32–3.00 | 2% · 8% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| SC Freiburg 1–4 RB Leipzig | 1.64–2.35 | 27% · 20% · 54% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| Mainz 05 4–0 SV Darmstadt 98 | 3.68–0.55 | 91% · 6% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| FC Cologne 2–1 VfL Bochum | 1.07–0.59 | 47% · 33% · 20% | Win in line with xG for FC Cologne |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 3–2 Bayern Munich | 1.44–1.89 | 29% · 22% · 48% | Won against the xG: 1. FC Heidenheim |
| Borussia Dortmund 0–1 VfB Stuttgart | 2.48–1.56 | 58% · 19% · 23% | Won against the xG: VfB Stuttgart |
| Hoffenheim 3–1 FC Augsburg | 1.78–1.10 | 53% · 23% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Hoffenheim |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.24–1.09 | 40% · 28% · 32% | Close call, Borussia Mönchengladbach won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.