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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 24.6 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli 3–1 Holstein Kiel | 1.47–1.34 | 40% · 25% · 34% | Win in line with xG for FC St. Pauli |
| RB Leipzig 1–5 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.07–2.33 | 16% · 19% · 65% | Win in line with xG for VfL Wolfsburg |
| Werder Bremen 2–2 VfB Stuttgart | 1.59–1.75 | 35% · 23% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| SC Freiburg 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.64–1.56 | 40% · 23% · 37% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| FC Augsburg 1–0 VfL Bochum | 1.88–0.26 | 77% · 18% · 4% | Win in line with xG for FC Augsburg |
| Union Berlin 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.71–0.94 | 26% · 34% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Bayern Munich | 0.47–1.46 | 12% · 26% · 62% | Draw against the xG: Bayern Munich had 62% |
| Mainz 05 2–0 Hoffenheim | 2.40–0.44 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–4 Eintracht Frankfurt | 0.69–2.64 | 7% · 14% · 79% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.