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9 of 9 matches with xG: 28 goals from 23.0 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg | 2.14–1.67 | 49% · 21% · 30% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| FC Augsburg 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.56–0.79 | 24% · 39% · 38% | Close call, Bayer Leverkusen won |
| Mainz 05 2–1 Bayern Munich | 1.06–1.39 | 29% · 27% · 44% | Won against the xG: Mainz 05 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 4–1 Holstein Kiel | 2.32–0.57 | 77% · 16% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| Union Berlin 1–1 VfL Bochum | 2.50–0.97 | 71% · 17% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Union Berlin had 71% |
| FC St. Pauli 0–2 Werder Bremen | 0.60–0.97 | 22% · 35% · 43% | Win in line with xG for Werder Bremen |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 1–3 VfB Stuttgart | 0.81–2.30 | 12% · 18% · 71% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Borussia Dortmund 1–1 Hoffenheim | 0.48–0.99 | 18% · 35% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| RB Leipzig 2–1 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.99–0.92 | 62% · 21% · 17% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.