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9 of 9 matches with xG: 24 goals from 26.1 xG (0.92 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 2–3 Bayer Leverkusen | 1.35–1.50 | 34% · 25% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Hoffenheim 0–1 VfL Wolfsburg | 0.98–0.75 | 40% · 33% · 27% | Close call, VfL Wolfsburg won |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 Union Berlin | 1.52–1.12 | 46% · 26% · 28% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Heidenheim |
| SC Freiburg 3–2 Holstein Kiel | 0.69–1.82 | 14% · 22% · 64% | Won against the xG: SC Freiburg |
| Mainz 05 2–0 VfL Bochum | 1.91–0.60 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| FC St. Pauli 0–1 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.25–1.53 | 54% · 20% · 26% | Won against the xG: Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–1 Bayern Munich | 0.39–3.27 | 2% · 7% · 91% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| RB Leipzig 4–2 Werder Bremen | 2.15–1.50 | 53% · 21% · 27% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| FC Augsburg 0–1 VfB Stuttgart | 0.30–2.43 | 3% · 12% · 85% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.