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9 of 9 matches with xG: 32 goals from 27.2 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 Borussia Dortmund | 1.70–0.82 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| VfB Stuttgart 4–0 SC Freiburg | 2.03–0.26 | 80% · 16% · 4% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Bayern Munich 3–2 VfL Wolfsburg | 3.07–0.54 | 87% · 9% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–2 FC St. Pauli | 0.66–1.95 | 12% · 20% · 68% | Win in line with xG for FC St. Pauli |
| VfL Bochum 3–3 RB Leipzig | 3.09–2.21 | 56% · 17% · 27% | Draw against the xG: VfL Bochum had 56% |
| Holstein Kiel 1–3 Hoffenheim | 1.04–0.77 | 41% · 32% · 26% | Close call, Hoffenheim won |
| Bayer Leverkusen 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.07–0.63 | 71% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Union Berlin 2–1 Mainz 05 | 2.08–1.69 | 47% · 21% · 32% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| Werder Bremen 0–2 FC Augsburg | 1.34–1.22 | 40% · 27% · 34% | Close call, FC Augsburg won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.