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9 of 9 matches with xG: 30 goals from 28.8 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Freiburg 5–0 Werder Bremen | 1.92–1.26 | 53% · 22% · 25% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1–1 VfL Bochum | 1.73–0.84 | 58% · 24% · 18% | Draw against the xG: VfL Wolfsburg had 58% |
| Mainz 05 2–0 FC St. Pauli | 1.34–0.85 | 48% · 28% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 0–3 FC Augsburg | 0.98–1.18 | 30% · 29% · 40% | Win in line with xG for FC Augsburg |
| Holstein Kiel 0–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.30–1.85 | 5% · 19% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Borussia Dortmund 6–0 Union Berlin | 4.77–0.27 | 98% · 2% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| RB Leipzig 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.06–0.88 | 65% · 20% · 15% | Draw against the xG: RB Leipzig had 65% |
| Bayern Munich 4–0 Eintracht Frankfurt | 4.01–0.53 | 93% · 5% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Hoffenheim 1–1 VfB Stuttgart | 1.00–2.99 | 9% · 13% · 77% | Draw against the xG: VfB Stuttgart had 77% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.