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9 of 9 matches with xG: 22 goals from 23.1 xG (0.95 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 1–3 Bayern Munich | 0.89–2.19 | 14% · 19% · 67% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| RB Leipzig 1–2 Mainz 05 | 1.39–1.49 | 35% · 25% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.65–1.81 | 36% · 22% · 42% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| Werder Bremen 1–2 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.66–0.69 | 61% · 24% · 15% | Won against the xG: VfL Wolfsburg |
| VfL Bochum 0–1 Hoffenheim | 0.90–0.59 | 41% · 36% · 23% | Won against the xG: Hoffenheim |
| FC St. Pauli 0–2 Borussia Dortmund | 0.41–1.66 | 9% · 23% · 69% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 Bayer Leverkusen | 1.08–2.17 | 18% · 20% · 62% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Union Berlin 0–1 Holstein Kiel | 1.23–1.02 | 41% · 29% · 31% | Close call, Holstein Kiel won |
| FC Augsburg 0–0 SC Freiburg | 1.48–0.78 | 54% · 26% · 20% | Draw against the xG: FC Augsburg had 54% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.