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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 24.8 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 1–3 Bayern Munich | 0.39–2.40 | 4% · 13% · 82% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| RB Leipzig 3–1 Hoffenheim | 1.67–0.87 | 56% · 24% · 19% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen | 0.94–0.36 | 49% · 37% · 14% | Won against the xG: Bayer Leverkusen |
| SC Freiburg 1–4 Borussia Dortmund | 1.40–3.35 | 12% · 13% · 75% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| Mainz 05 1–1 Holstein Kiel | 1.62–0.98 | 52% · 25% · 23% | Draw against the xG: Mainz 05 had 52% |
| VfL Bochum 0–4 VfB Stuttgart | 0.80–2.85 | 8% · 13% · 79% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Werder Bremen 2–0 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.05–0.55 | 47% · 34% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Werder Bremen |
| FC St. Pauli 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.84–0.64 | 66% · 22% · 12% | Draw against the xG: FC St. Pauli had 66% |
| Union Berlin 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.19–1.86 | 24% · 23% · 53% | Won against the xG: Union Berlin |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.