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9 of 9 matches with xG: 26 goals from 25.9 xG (1.01 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfL Wolfsburg 2–3 RB Leipzig | 1.62–1.34 | 44% · 24% · 32% | Close call, RB Leipzig won |
| Bayer Leverkusen 0–0 Union Berlin | 0.55–0.64 | 26% · 42% · 32% | Draw in line with xG |
| Hoffenheim 2–0 Mainz 05 | 1.72–1.15 | 51% · 24% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Hoffenheim |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–2 SC Freiburg | 0.71–1.72 | 15% · 23% · 62% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| VfL Bochum 1–2 FC Augsburg | 2.76–1.08 | 73% · 15% · 12% | Won against the xG: FC Augsburg |
| Holstein Kiel 1–2 FC St. Pauli | 0.50–1.22 | 15% · 31% · 54% | Win in line with xG for FC St. Pauli |
| Bayern Munich 2–2 Borussia Dortmund | 1.97–1.50 | 49% · 22% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| VfB Stuttgart 1–2 Werder Bremen | 1.67–1.48 | 42% · 24% · 34% | Close call, Werder Bremen won |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 3–0 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.90–1.34 | 69% · 16% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.