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9 of 9 matches with xG: 25 goals from 23.0 xG (1.09 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 0–1 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.90–0.53 | 70% · 20% · 9% | Won against the xG: 1. FC Heidenheim |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC Augsburg | 0.81–0.72 | 34% · 36% · 29% | Close call, Bayer Leverkusen won |
| Bayern Munich 3–0 Mainz 05 | 1.10–0.67 | 46% · 32% · 22% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund | 1.34–2.51 | 19% · 18% · 63% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| VfL Wolfsburg 0–1 SC Freiburg | 0.34–1.72 | 7% · 21% · 72% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Holstein Kiel 4–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3.50–1.69 | 72% · 13% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Holstein Kiel |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 4–0 RB Leipzig | 2.13–0.36 | 79% · 16% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| VfL Bochum 1–1 Union Berlin | 1.51–0.29 | 69% · 25% · 7% | Draw against the xG: VfL Bochum had 69% |
| Werder Bremen 0–0 FC St. Pauli | 1.24–0.62 | 51% · 30% · 19% | Draw against the xG: Werder Bremen had 51% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.