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9 of 9 matches with xG: 35 goals from 25.7 xG (1.36 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 2–3 Mainz 05 | 2.46–0.84 | 73% · 16% · 11% | Won against the xG: Mainz 05 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–3 SC Freiburg | 0.68–1.39 | 18% · 28% · 54% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Werder Bremen 0–5 Bayern Munich | 0.00–3.04 | 0% · 5% · 95% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Union Berlin 2–1 Hoffenheim | 1.21–0.39 | 57% · 31% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| VfL Bochum 2–2 Holstein Kiel | 0.84–1.51 | 21% · 26% · 53% | Draw against the xG: Holstein Kiel had 53% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 2.76–1.94 | 55% · 18% · 27% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Bayer Leverkusen 4–3 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.92–0.66 | 67% · 21% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| VfB Stuttgart 5–1 Borussia Dortmund | 3.39–0.66 | 88% · 8% · 4% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| FC St. Pauli 0–0 RB Leipzig | 1.35–0.66 | 53% · 28% · 18% | Draw against the xG: FC St. Pauli had 53% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.