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9 of 9 matches with xG: 35 goals from 26.5 xG (1.32 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Dortmund 4–2 VfL Bochum | 3.25–1.27 | 76% · 13% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| RB Leipzig 4–0 FC Augsburg | 3.05–1.08 | 77% · 13% · 10% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| SC Freiburg 0–3 FC St. Pauli | 1.17–1.14 | 37% · 28% · 35% | Close call, FC St. Pauli won |
| VfL Wolfsburg 2–2 VfB Stuttgart | 1.10–1.85 | 22% · 23% · 55% | Draw against the xG: VfB Stuttgart had 55% |
| Mainz 05 0–2 1. FC Heidenheim | 0.60–1.46 | 15% · 27% · 58% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Heidenheim |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 Union Berlin | 0.86–0.66 | 38% · 36% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| Bayern Munich 1–1 Bayer Leverkusen | 1.38–0.06 | 73% · 26% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Bayern Munich had 73% |
| Holstein Kiel 2–4 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.01–1.93 | 19% · 22% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Hoffenheim 3–4 Werder Bremen | 1.29–3.33 | 11% · 13% · 76% | Win in line with xG for Werder Bremen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.