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9 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.1 xG (1.08 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Augsburg 2–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.29–0.50 | 56% · 29% · 14% | Win in line with xG for FC Augsburg |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–2 Holstein Kiel | 2.08–1.65 | 48% · 21% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Werder Bremen 0–1 SC Freiburg | 1.01–1.04 | 34% · 30% · 36% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Union Berlin 2–1 Borussia Dortmund | 1.48–0.74 | 55% · 26% · 19% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| VfL Bochum 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.75–2.47 | 27% · 19% · 54% | Win in line with xG for VfL Wolfsburg |
| FC St. Pauli 0–3 Mainz 05 | 1.09–1.10 | 35% · 29% · 36% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–1 RB Leipzig | 1.05–1.49 | 27% · 26% · 47% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 3–3 Bayern Munich | 1.21–2.18 | 20% · 20% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Bayern Munich had 59% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Hoffenheim | 2.05–0.89 | 64% · 20% · 15% | Draw against the xG: VfB Stuttgart had 64% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.