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9 of 9 matches with xG: 34 goals from 27.6 xG (1.23 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mainz 05 1–1 Hoffenheim | 2.03–1.38 | 53% · 21% · 26% | Draw against the xG: Mainz 05 had 53% |
| FC Augsburg 1–0 Hamburger SV | 1.70–1.36 | 46% · 24% · 31% | Win in line with xG for FC Augsburg |
| Bayern Munich 6–2 SC Freiburg | 3.03–0.57 | 86% · 10% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Borussia Dortmund 3–3 VfB Stuttgart | 2.99–1.55 | 67% · 16% · 17% | Draw against the xG: Borussia Dortmund had 67% |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 0–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.33–2.18 | 4% · 15% · 80% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Mönchengladbach |
| VfL Wolfsburg 1–3 Bayer Leverkusen | 2.13–1.10 | 61% · 20% · 19% | Won against the xG: Bayer Leverkusen |
| FC Cologne 3–4 Eintracht Frankfurt | 1.22–1.81 | 26% · 23% · 51% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| RB Leipzig 2–0 Werder Bremen | 2.10–0.80 | 67% · 19% · 13% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| FC St. Pauli 0–1 Union Berlin | 0.72–0.55 | 35% · 40% · 25% | Close call, Union Berlin won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.