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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.0 xG (1.16 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Berlin 3–1 RB Leipzig | 1.42–0.55 | 59% · 27% · 14% | Win in line with xG for Union Berlin |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–3 VfL Wolfsburg | 0.80–1.72 | 17% · 24% · 59% | Win in line with xG for VfL Wolfsburg |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 1–0 FC Augsburg | 1.05–0.62 | 45% · 33% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Eintracht Frankfurt |
| Hoffenheim 4–1 Hamburger SV | 1.31–1.38 | 35% · 26% · 39% | Close call, Hoffenheim won |
| FC St. Pauli 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim | 0.80–2.44 | 10% · 16% · 73% | Won against the xG: FC St. Pauli |
| Bayer Leverkusen 2–0 FC Cologne | 2.07–0.20 | 82% · 15% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| SC Freiburg 1–1 Borussia Dortmund | 1.50–0.93 | 51% · 26% · 23% | Draw against the xG: SC Freiburg had 51% |
| Bayern Munich 2–2 Mainz 05 | 4.50–0.60 | 95% · 4% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Bayern Munich had 95% |
| Werder Bremen 0–4 VfB Stuttgart | 0.91–2.17 | 15% · 19% · 66% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.