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9 of 9 matches with xG: 29 goals from 26.2 xG (1.11 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 3–2 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.31–0.98 | 67% · 18% · 15% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Borussia Dortmund 3–0 Werder Bremen | 2.42–0.52 | 80% · 14% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| Mainz 05 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim | 1.39–1.55 | 34% · 24% · 41% | Close call, Mainz 05 won |
| VfL Wolfsburg 2–1 FC St. Pauli | 1.88–0.89 | 61% · 22% · 17% | Win in line with xG for VfL Wolfsburg |
| FC Cologne 1–3 Bayern Munich | 0.72–1.50 | 18% · 26% · 56% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Hoffenheim 5–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 3.42–0.94 | 83% · 10% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Hoffenheim |
| RB Leipzig 2–0 SC Freiburg | 2.48–0.17 | 88% · 10% · 2% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| FC Augsburg 1–1 Union Berlin | 0.55–1.31 | 16% · 29% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Union Berlin had 55% |
| Hamburger SV 0–1 Bayer Leverkusen | 1.27–1.89 | 26% · 22% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.