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9 of 9 matches with xG: 34 goals from 33.4 xG (1.02 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayer Leverkusen 6–3 VfL Wolfsburg | 4.52–2.01 | 78% · 10% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 2–2 1. FC Heidenheim | 0.73–1.13 | 24% · 31% · 45% | Draw in line with xG |
| SC Freiburg 2–3 Bayern Munich | 1.84–3.00 | 22% · 16% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Hamburger SV 1–1 FC Augsburg | 1.86–2.47 | 29% · 19% · 52% | Draw against the xG: FC Augsburg had 52% |
| Hoffenheim 1–2 Mainz 05 | 1.16–2.19 | 19% · 20% · 61% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| Werder Bremen 1–2 RB Leipzig | 1.51–1.49 | 38% · 24% · 37% | Close call, RB Leipzig won |
| VfB Stuttgart 0–2 Borussia Dortmund | 0.76–0.61 | 35% · 39% · 26% | Close call, Borussia Dortmund won |
| Union Berlin 1–1 FC St. Pauli | 2.00–0.33 | 78% · 17% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Union Berlin had 78% |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 FC Cologne | 2.58–3.23 | 31% · 16% · 52% | Draw against the xG: FC Cologne had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.