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9 of 9 matches with xG: 27 goals from 31.4 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin | 4.49–0.19 | 98% · 2% · 0% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| FC Augsburg 1–1 Eintracht Frankfurt | 2.00–1.11 | 58% · 21% · 21% | Draw against the xG: FC Augsburg had 58% |
| FC Cologne 1–2 Bayer Leverkusen | 3.04–1.33 | 72% · 15% · 14% | Won against the xG: Bayer Leverkusen |
| 1. FC Heidenheim 2–0 FC St. Pauli | 1.61–1.06 | 50% · 25% · 25% | Win in line with xG for 1. FC Heidenheim |
| Mainz 05 3–4 Bayern Munich | 2.69–2.21 | 49% · 18% · 33% | Close call, Bayern Munich won |
| VfL Wolfsburg 0–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.47–0.51 | 61% · 26% · 13% | Draw against the xG: VfL Wolfsburg had 61% |
| Hamburger SV 1–2 Hoffenheim | 1.37–1.45 | 36% · 25% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Hoffenheim |
| VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Werder Bremen | 1.82–0.93 | 58% · 23% · 19% | Draw against the xG: VfB Stuttgart had 58% |
| Borussia Dortmund 4–0 SC Freiburg | 3.37–0.76 | 86% · 9% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.