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9 of 9 matches with xG: 32 goals from 32.2 xG (0.99 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 2–0 FC St. Pauli | 2.11–0.95 | 64% · 20% · 16% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| FC Augsburg 1–4 Mainz 05 | 1.12–2.52 | 15% · 17% · 68% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| Hamburger SV 2–1 1. FC Heidenheim | 2.35–2.98 | 31% · 17% · 52% | Close call, Hamburger SV won |
| Hoffenheim 1–4 Bayern Munich | 0.85–3.04 | 7% · 12% · 81% | Win in line with xG for Bayern Munich |
| Werder Bremen 0–3 SC Freiburg | 1.22–2.42 | 18% · 18% · 64% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| RB Leipzig 3–1 FC Cologne | 3.28–1.70 | 68% · 15% · 17% | Win in line with xG for RB Leipzig |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 3–4 Union Berlin | 1.90–1.64 | 44% · 22% · 34% | Close call, Union Berlin won |
| Bayer Leverkusen 1–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1.46–0.81 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Draw against the xG: Bayer Leverkusen had 52% |
| Borussia Dortmund 1–0 VfL Wolfsburg | 1.10–0.80 | 42% · 31% · 26% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.