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9 of 9 matches with xG: 36 goals from 30.6 xG (1.18 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| VfB Stuttgart 4–1 FC Cologne | 3.47–2.86 | 51% · 16% · 33% | Win in line with xG for VfB Stuttgart |
| Hoffenheim 2–3 Borussia Dortmund | 1.17–2.02 | 22% · 21% · 57% | Win in line with xG for Borussia Dortmund |
| Bayer Leverkusen 4–0 Union Berlin | 3.11–0.39 | 90% · 8% · 2% | Win in line with xG for Bayer Leverkusen |
| Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–4 SV Elversberg | 2.36–2.31 | 41% · 19% · 40% | Close call, SV Elversberg won |
| Werder Bremen 3–1 RB Leipzig | 0.95–1.50 | 24% · 26% · 50% | Won against the xG: Werder Bremen |
| Paderborn 0–1 SC Freiburg | 0.77–1.24 | 23% · 30% · 47% | Win in line with xG for SC Freiburg |
| Schalke 04 0–0 Bayern Munich | 0.21–1.94 | 3% · 17% · 80% | Draw against the xG: Bayern Munich had 80% |
| Hamburger SV 0–5 Mainz 05 | 0.19–2.77 | 1% · 8% · 90% | Win in line with xG for Mainz 05 |
| Eintracht Frankfurt 1–4 FC Augsburg | 2.22–1.13 | 62% · 20% · 18% | Won against the xG: FC Augsburg |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.