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4 of 5 matches with xG: 9 goals from 8.5 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bohemians 2–1 Drogheda United | 1.92–0.61 | 69% · 20% · 11% | Win in line with xG for Bohemians |
| St Patrick's Athl. 0–1 Shelbourne | 0.65–0.80 | 27% · 37% · 36% | Close call, Shelbourne won |
| Waterford 2–2 Derry City | 2.15–0.49 | 76% · 17% · 7% | Draw against the xG: Waterford had 76% |
| Dundalk 1–0 Shamrock Rovers | 0.44–1.44 | 11% · 27% · 62% | Won against the xG: Dundalk |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.