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4 of 5 matches with xG: 14 goals from 13.5 xG (1.04 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City 2–0 Sligo Rovers | 1.68–0.23 | 74% · 21% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Derry City |
| Shamrock Rovers 3–2 Dundalk | 2.66–1.72 | 58% · 18% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Shamrock Rovers |
| Waterford 3–1 Bohemians | 1.66–1.25 | 47% · 24% · 29% | Win in line with xG for Waterford |
| Shelbourne 1–2 St Patrick's Athl. | 1.12–3.15 | 10% · 13% · 77% | Win in line with xG for St Patrick's Athl. |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.