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10 of 10 matches with xG: 30 goals from 25.3 xG (1.19 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa 1–1 Como | 0.86–1.39 | 23% · 27% · 49% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lecce 1–1 Empoli | 1.58–0.58 | 62% · 25% · 13% | Draw against the xG: Lecce had 62% |
| Venezia 1–2 Parma | 0.93–0.98 | 33% · 32% · 35% | Win in line with xG for Parma |
| Cagliari 3–3 AC Milan | 1.70–3.20 | 18% · 15% · 67% | Draw against the xG: AC Milan had 67% |
| Juventus 2–0 Torino | 1.74–0.41 | 70% · 22% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Atalanta 2–1 Udinese | 0.91–0.84 | 35% · 33% · 31% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Fiorentina 3–1 Hellas Verona | 1.96–0.44 | 74% · 19% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
| AS Roma 2–3 Bologna | 1.32–1.68 | 30% · 24% · 46% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Monza 0–1 Lazio | 0.96–1.61 | 23% · 25% · 53% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Inter 1–1 Napoli | 1.55–0.66 | 59% · 25% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 59% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.