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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 25.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Empoli 0–1 Torino | 0.57–1.00 | 20% · 34% · 45% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
| Cagliari 0–1 Atalanta | 1.51–1.46 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Close call, Atalanta won |
| Udinese 1–3 Napoli | 1.84–2.19 | 33% · 20% · 47% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Juventus 2–2 Venezia | 2.19–0.59 | 74% · 17% · 9% | Draw against the xG: Juventus had 74% |
| Lecce 2–1 Monza | 1.46–0.61 | 58% · 27% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Lecce |
| Bologna 1–0 Fiorentina | 1.20–0.77 | 46% · 30% · 24% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Parma 2–3 Hellas Verona | 1.92–2.57 | 29% · 19% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Hellas Verona |
| Como 2–0 AS Roma | 1.23–0.34 | 59% · 30% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Como |
| AC Milan 0–0 Genoa | 1.11–0.28 | 57% · 33% · 9% | Draw against the xG: AC Milan had 57% |
| Lazio 0–6 Inter | 0.41–2.14 | 6% · 16% · 78% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.