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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 22.1 xG (1.31 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parma 1–3 Lecce | 1.96–0.71 | 67% · 20% · 13% | Won against the xG: Lecce |
| Monza 0–1 Hellas Verona | 0.38–0.92 | 15% · 38% · 48% | Win in line with xG for Hellas Verona |
| Udinese 3–2 Venezia | 0.74–1.31 | 21% · 29% · 50% | Won against the xG: Udinese |
| Atalanta 1–1 Torino | 2.97–0.58 | 85% · 10% · 5% | Draw against the xG: Atalanta had 85% |
| Bologna 2–0 Como | 1.53–0.53 | 62% · 25% · 13% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Juventus 4–1 Empoli | 1.86–0.78 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Fiorentina 2–1 Genoa | 0.64–1.57 | 15% · 25% · 60% | Won against the xG: Fiorentina |
| AC Milan 1–1 Inter | 0.60–1.35 | 17% · 28% · 55% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 55% |
| AS Roma 1–1 Napoli | 0.52–0.30 | 32% · 51% · 17% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cagliari 1–2 Lazio | 1.58–1.29 | 44% · 25% · 31% | Close call, Lazio won |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.