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10 of 10 matches with xG: 31 goals from 29.4 xG (1.06 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari 1–1 Genoa | 0.68–0.95 | 25% · 34% · 40% | Draw in line with xG |
| Como 1–1 Venezia | 1.01–1.33 | 28% · 28% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Parma 2–2 Torino | 1.75–0.56 | 66% · 22% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Parma had 66% |
| Lecce 2–3 AC Milan | 0.87–3.60 | 5% · 9% · 86% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Inter 3–2 Monza | 2.61–0.65 | 79% · 14% · 7% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Hellas Verona 1–2 Bologna | 1.16–1.32 | 33% · 27% · 40% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Napoli 2–1 Fiorentina | 2.85–1.13 | 73% · 15% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Empoli 0–1 AS Roma | 0.11–2.00 | 2% · 15% · 83% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Juventus 0–4 Atalanta | 0.76–3.77 | 4% · 7% · 89% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Lazio 1–1 Udinese | 0.84–1.43 | 22% · 27% · 51% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 51% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.