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10 of 10 matches with xG: 29 goals from 25.7 xG (1.13 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Como 2–2 Bologna | 1.17–1.20 | 35% · 28% · 37% | Draw in line with xG |
| Empoli 0–0 Juventus | 0.49–0.89 | 19% · 37% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| AC Milan 4–0 Venezia | 2.25–0.25 | 83% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Genoa 1–1 AS Roma | 1.25–2.19 | 21% · 20% · 59% | Draw against the xG: AS Roma had 59% |
| Atalanta 3–2 Fiorentina | 1.65–1.95 | 33% · 22% · 45% | Close call, Atalanta won |
| Torino 0–0 Lecce | 0.45–1.60 | 10% · 24% · 66% | Draw against the xG: Lecce had 66% |
| Cagliari 0–4 Napoli | 1.02–1.93 | 20% · 22% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Monza 1–1 Inter | 0.24–1.66 | 5% · 22% · 74% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 74% |
| Parma 2–3 Udinese | 0.80–2.66 | 9% · 14% · 77% | Win in line with xG for Udinese |
| Lazio 2–1 Hellas Verona | 1.22–0.83 | 45% · 30% · 25% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.