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10 of 10 matches with xG: 33 goals from 27.1 xG (1.22 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| AC Milan 3–0 Lecce | 1.65–0.49 | 66% · 23% · 11% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Udinese 2–3 Inter | 0.77–2.22 | 12% · 18% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Genoa 0–3 Juventus | 0.44–2.60 | 4% · 12% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Bologna 1–1 Atalanta | 0.10–2.03 | 1% · 14% · 84% | Draw against the xG: Atalanta had 84% |
| Torino 2–3 Lazio | 0.68–2.07 | 11% · 19% · 70% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Como 3–2 Hellas Verona | 2.25–1.14 | 62% · 19% · 18% | Win in line with xG for Como |
| AS Roma 2–1 Venezia | 1.68–1.70 | 38% · 23% · 39% | Close call, AS Roma won |
| Empoli 0–0 Fiorentina | 0.36–0.68 | 17% · 45% · 38% | Draw in line with xG |
| Napoli 2–0 Monza | 1.17–0.30 | 59% · 32% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Parma 2–3 Cagliari | 2.38–2.38 | 41% · 19% · 41% | Win in line with xG for Cagliari |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.