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10 of 10 matches with xG: 37 goals from 28.5 xG (1.30 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese 2–0 Cagliari | 1.03–0.43 | 50% · 35% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Udinese |
| Torino 1–0 Como | 1.38–1.48 | 35% · 25% · 40% | Close call, Torino won |
| Napoli 1–0 Lecce | 2.69–0.61 | 81% · 13% · 6% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Atalanta 6–1 Hellas Verona | 2.44–0.28 | 85% · 12% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Parma 1–1 Empoli | 1.74–0.13 | 79% · 19% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Parma had 79% |
| Lazio 3–0 Genoa | 2.18–0.27 | 82% · 15% · 4% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Monza 2–2 Venezia | 1.14–0.48 | 52% · 32% · 16% | Draw against the xG: Monza had 52% |
| Inter 4–4 Juventus | 2.99–2.17 | 55% · 17% · 28% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 55% |
| Fiorentina 5–1 AS Roma | 3.73–0.65 | 90% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
| Bologna 2–1 AC Milan | 2.08–0.61 | 72% · 19% · 10% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.