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10 of 10 matches with xG: 22 goals from 25.5 xG (0.86 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Udinese 1–0 Atalanta | 0.53–0.37 | 31% · 49% · 20% | Close call, Udinese won |
| Napoli 0–0 Como | 0.78–1.07 | 26% · 32% · 42% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cremonese 1–2 Juventus | 0.54–2.03 | 9% · 19% · 73% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| Hellas Verona 1–2 Inter | 0.38–1.11 | 13% · 33% · 54% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Fiorentina 0–1 Lecce | 1.46–1.15 | 44% · 26% · 30% | Close call, Lecce won |
| Torino 2–2 Pisa | 0.91–1.53 | 22% · 26% · 52% | Draw against the xG: Pisa had 52% |
| Parma 1–3 Bologna | 0.51–2.72 | 5% · 12% · 84% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| AC Milan 1–0 AS Roma | 3.32–1.95 | 65% · 15% · 20% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Sassuolo 1–2 Genoa | 1.15–1.76 | 25% · 23% · 52% | Win in line with xG for Genoa |
| Lazio 2–0 Cagliari | 0.69–1.51 | 17% · 26% · 57% | Won against the xG: Lazio |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.