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10 of 10 matches with xG: 19 goals from 23.3 xG (0.81 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cagliari 0–1 AC Milan | 0.38–0.70 | 18% · 44% · 39% | Close call, AC Milan won |
| Como 1–0 Udinese | 2.24–0.61 | 75% · 17% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Como |
| Genoa 1–1 Pisa | 0.54–0.62 | 26% · 43% · 31% | Draw in line with xG |
| Sassuolo 1–1 Parma | 0.86–1.20 | 26% · 30% · 44% | Draw in line with xG |
| Juventus 1–1 Lecce | 2.77–0.26 | 89% · 9% · 2% | Draw against the xG: Juventus had 89% |
| Atalanta 1–0 AS Roma | 1.88–0.78 | 63% · 22% · 15% | Win in line with xG for Atalanta |
| Lazio 0–2 Napoli | 0.36–1.86 | 6% · 19% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Fiorentina 1–0 Cremonese | 2.06–0.73 | 68% · 19% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Fiorentina |
| Hellas Verona 0–3 Torino | 0.14–1.55 | 3% · 23% · 74% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
| Inter 3–1 Bologna | 2.93–0.85 | 79% · 13% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.