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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 28.0 xG (0.96 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hellas Verona 0–1 Sassuolo | 0.80–1.67 | 18% · 24% · 58% | Win in line with xG for Sassuolo |
| Lazio 3–3 Torino | 1.35–1.76 | 30% · 23% · 47% | Draw in line with xG |
| Parma 0–1 Lecce | 0.59–0.50 | 31% · 44% · 25% | Close call, Lecce won |
| Inter 4–1 Cremonese | 3.57–0.64 | 89% · 7% · 3% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Atalanta 1–1 Como | 1.40–1.32 | 39% · 26% · 35% | Draw in line with xG |
| Udinese 1–1 Cagliari | 2.68–0.97 | 74% · 15% · 11% | Draw against the xG: Udinese had 74% |
| Bologna 4–0 Pisa | 3.62–0.04 | 97% · 3% · 0% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Fiorentina 1–2 AS Roma | 1.10–1.35 | 30% · 27% · 42% | Win in line with xG for AS Roma |
| Napoli 2–1 Genoa | 1.31–0.44 | 59% · 29% · 12% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Juventus 0–0 AC Milan | 1.13–1.74 | 25% · 24% · 52% | Draw against the xG: AC Milan had 52% |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.