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10 of 10 matches with xG: 11 goals from 22.4 xG (0.49 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecce 0–0 Sassuolo | 0.70–0.39 | 38% · 43% · 18% | Draw in line with xG |
| Pisa 0–0 Hellas Verona | 0.65–1.54 | 16% · 26% · 59% | Draw against the xG: Hellas Verona had 59% |
| Torino 1–0 Napoli | 2.00–2.06 | 39% · 21% · 41% | Close call, Torino won |
| AS Roma 0–1 Inter | 1.35–0.63 | 54% · 28% · 17% | Won against the xG: Inter |
| Como 2–0 Juventus | 1.46–0.88 | 51% · 27% · 23% | Win in line with xG for Como |
| Cagliari 0–2 Bologna | 0.22–1.11 | 7% · 33% · 59% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Genoa 0–0 Parma | 2.20–0.05 | 88% · 12% · 1% | Draw against the xG: Genoa had 88% |
| Atalanta 0–0 Lazio | 2.18–0.25 | 82% · 14% · 3% | Draw against the xG: Atalanta had 82% |
| AC Milan 2–1 Fiorentina | 1.98–1.08 | 58% · 22% · 20% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
| Cremonese 1–1 Udinese | 1.07–0.55 | 48% · 33% · 19% | Draw in line with xG |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.