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10 of 10 matches with xG: 24 goals from 28.7 xG (0.84 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monza 2–1 Sassuolo | 1.51–1.47 | 39% · 24% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Monza |
| Bologna 1–1 Torino | 0.92–1.14 | 29% · 30% · 41% | Draw in line with xG |
| Udinese 0–1 Cagliari | 2.13–1.12 | 60% · 20% · 19% | Won against the xG: Cagliari |
| AS Roma 2–2 Inter | 1.66–2.86 | 21% · 17% · 63% | Draw against the xG: Inter had 63% |
| Venezia 0–2 Lazio | 1.89–1.60 | 45% · 22% · 33% | Close call, Lazio won |
| Fiorentina 1–1 Napoli | 1.14–1.40 | 31% · 26% · 43% | Draw in line with xG |
| Frosinone 2–0 Como | 2.18–2.12 | 41% · 20% · 39% | Win in line with xG for Frosinone |
| Parma 2–1 Genoa | 0.53–0.70 | 24% · 41% · 35% | Close call, Parma won |
| Juventus 2–0 Atalanta | 1.31–0.60 | 54% · 29% · 17% | Win in line with xG for Juventus |
| AC Milan 3–0 Lecce | 2.19–0.21 | 84% · 14% · 3% | Win in line with xG for AC Milan |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.