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10 of 10 matches with xG: 27 goals from 31.7 xG (0.85 goals per xG).
| Match | xG | Chances (home · draw · away) | Result on xG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina | 1.46–0.82 | 52% · 27% · 21% | Win in line with xG for Genoa |
| Inter 3–0 Parma | 2.42–0.46 | 81% · 14% · 5% | Win in line with xG for Inter |
| Napoli 3–0 Frosinone | 3.12–1.01 | 79% · 12% · 9% | Win in line with xG for Napoli |
| Como 0–0 AS Roma | 1.35–1.08 | 43% · 27% · 30% | Draw in line with xG |
| Lazio 3–1 Monza | 1.84–1.76 | 41% · 22% · 37% | Win in line with xG for Lazio |
| Lecce 1–2 Bologna | 1.49–1.98 | 29% · 22% · 49% | Win in line with xG for Bologna |
| Sassuolo 1–1 AC Milan | 1.19–1.18 | 36% · 28% · 36% | Draw in line with xG |
| Cagliari 1–1 Juventus | 0.52–1.95 | 9% · 19% · 72% | Draw against the xG: Juventus had 72% |
| Atalanta 3–1 Venezia | 2.19–2.48 | 35% · 19% · 46% | Close call, Atalanta won |
| Torino 2–1 Udinese | 2.62–0.76 | 77% · 14% · 8% | Win in line with xG for Torino |
Each side's goals as a Poisson count of its full-time xG: what the chances made likely, not a prediction or a tip.